Method in Trump's madness
Phil Quin
Published 7:06 AM, 6 Apr 2011 Last update 10:33 AM, 6 Apr 2011
After a great deal more is said and done, billionaire property developer and TV host Donald Trump will not make a serious run for President. In the end, he will find the requirement to divest himself of complex investments, and divulge the rest in granular detail, too much to endure. But the showman-mogul's shameless flirtation with a White House bid makes for compelling viewing.
In recent days, Trump's foray into birtherism (the theory that President Obama is a Kenyan usurper) has caused consternation and some disgust among the chattering classes. Comic Bill Maher said on Friday, "you can't have the world's most famous comb-over and accuse someone else of hiding something". Christian conservatives are similarly unimpressed with Trump's checkered marital history and suspected social liberalism.
Jokes and doubts aside, there is a smidgen of method to Trump's madness. Ever an astute marketer, Trump has spotted a powerful and as-yet unmanned aircraft in the Republican hangar – straight-forward economic nationalism. The field of mainstream GOP hopefuls share a basic adherence to conservative economic principles: lower taxes, lower spending, free trade and free markets. But Trump senses, correctly in my view, that such a platform will fail to excite a large number of the US voters beset by economic uncertainty. Cue 'The Donald', raging populist.
Neither Republicans nor Democrats have devised a means to turn the prevailing economic angst reliably to their advantage. Panic and uncertainty in the wake of the global financial crisis played into Obama's hands in 2008; by the 2010 mid-term elections, however, his policy response to the crisis had earned a backlash of equivalent magnitude. The Tea Party emerged from the maelstrom to become an outlet for profound if generalised feelings of anxiety and disgust with the way power and wealth are distributed in America. Rage was aimed at bankers as much as politicians, greed on Wall Street as much as government over-reach in DC. And while it directed its activism squarely against Obama and the Democrats at the polls, the Tea Party's appeal was that it appeared to spring from outside the partisan mire. It was, by vibe at least, a genuine populist insurgency.
Support for the Tea Party has dwindled (halved, according to a recent CNN poll) as its message has narrowed from emotive generalities to a specific form of unbending fiscal hawkishness. Since arriving in DC, Tea Party freshmen have focussed exclusively on spending and deficit cuts while joining old-school Republicans to defend subsidies for big oil, slash unemployment benefits and defund Wall Street regulators. It exhibits no interest in tackling middle-class income stagnation or reversing the tide of outsourcing, two rich seams of voter unease. It has also lined up with conservative governors in what now seems to be an ill-advised campaign against public sector employees.
As with all economic nationalists, Donald Trump's pitch speaks as much to pride as disaffection. He threatens to punish China for their currency policy with a 25 per cent tariff on imports. He urges ongoing occupation of Iraq in order to secure the country's oil reserves at a good price, and blames OPEC corruption for "decimating" the US economy. He hates government debt but dismisses calls for draconian budget cuts as feeble and defeatist. With his leadership, he argues, economic growth would reach fever-pitch and government revenues would flourish beyond the point where such measures would be necessary. Always the salesman, Trump offers punters an irresistible deal – a cost-free recovery, outsourcing pain to enemies in faraway places
A poll this week shows Donald Trump second only to local favourite Mitt Romney in the key early state of New Hampshire. This is a headache for Republican powerbrokers, but they needn't worry too much. Trump cannot withstand the scrutiny, and lacks the patience and discipline, to survive the marathon primary season. But there remains scope – either within the Republican race or as an independent bid – for a contender who brings to the table Trump's chest-thumping populism as well as his capacity to underwrite a billion-dollar campaign.
Hard as it is to see past his bloated and obnoxious persona, as well as his attention-seeking birther talk, Trump's "America-First" message seems likely to far outlast his fleeting candidacy.
Phil Quin, a former ALP adviser, is a writer and consultant based in New York. He blogs at www.thenewtasman.com.
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