POLITICO

Hillary Clinton's shadow campaign

 

Publicly, Clinton insists she’s many months away from a decision. | AP Photo

By MAGGIE HABERMAN | 1/5/14 9:01 PM EST

Early last summer in her Georgian-style home near Washington’s Embassy Row, Hillary Clinton met with a handful of aides for a detailed presentation on preparing for a 2016 presidential campaign.

Three officials from the Democratic consulting firm Dewey Square Group — veteran field organizer Michael Whouley, firm founder Charlie Baker and strategist Jill Alper, whose expertise includes voter attitudes toward women candidates — delivered a dispassionate, numbers-driven assessment. They broke down filing deadlines in certain states, projected how much money Clinton would need to raise and described how field operations have become more sophisticated in the era of Barack Obama.

The meeting was organized by Minyon Moore, a longtime Clinton intimate also at Dewey Square who has informally become the potential candidate’s political eyes and ears of late. Clinton listened closely but said little and made no commitments, according to people familiar with the nearly hourlong gathering. It appears to have been the only formal 2016-related presentation Clinton has been given from anyone outside her immediate circle.

Publicly, Clinton insists she’s many months away from a decision about her political future. But a shadow campaign on her behalf has nevertheless been steadily building for the better part of a year — a quiet, intensifying, improvisational effort to lay the groundwork for another White House bid.

Some of the activity has the former first lady’s tacit approval. Some involves outside groups that are operating independently, and at times in competition with one another, to prepare a final career act for the former senator and secretary of state, whose legacy as the most powerful woman in the history of American politics is already secure.

More than two dozen people in her orbit interviewed for this article described a virtual campaign in waiting — a term that itself makes some of Clinton’s supporters bristle — consisting of longtime Clinton loyalists as well as people who worked doggedly to elect her onetime rival Obama.

There are two spheres of influence. One is made up of more than a dozen Clinton staffers, loyalists and longtime friends whose advice she values the most.

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The other sphere is more complex. It includes an assortment of super PACs and outside groups, all jockeying to be part of the Clinton movement but operating beyond her immediate direction and control. Still, some of these efforts could become the foundation of an eventual campaign.

For all the genuine excitement about the prospect that Clinton, 66, could shatter the glass ceiling she famously invoked in 2008, the potential for rancor among these groups is real.

In at least one instance last year, two super PACs collided over efforts to get behind a Clinton candidacy — forcing her allies to intervene.

“There’s upside and there’s risk” to this patchwork of outside forces, said Tad Devine, an unaffiliated strategist who worked on John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign, when Democratic-leaning outside groups often acted at odds with the candidate’s message.

“The upside is that people are out there doing valuable and important work for you,” he said. But “in a campaign, when people are acting on your behalf but they’re not driven by an agreed-upon strategy, then that’s the risk.”

The outsiders: friends with headaches

Hillary Clinton was a few months removed from the State Department when one of her top aides, Huma Abedin, received an alarmed phone call about trouble brewing between two groups looking to help her politically.

“Ready for Hillary,” the super PAC that was initially billed as a grass-roots effort to channel early energy for Clinton to run, had become a source of frustration, and it was reaching a boiling point. In addition to a moniker that irked some Clinton allies — they thought it had an air of inevitability that plagued her in the past ­ — the group was making an aggressive play for activists and donors to back their effort.

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At the same time, Priorities USA, the main super PAC behind Obama in 2012, was in discussions to reinvent itself as a pro-Hillary Clinton endeavor. That would mean appealing to some of those same supporters. The two groups also had wildly different views of how active to be while Clinton was assessing whether to run.

The Priorities official warned Abedin that the situation could become problematic for Clinton if it wasn’t resolved. The official sought guidance from someone who had the would-be candidate’s ear.
The efforts of pro-Clinton outside groups over the past half-year, and the Clinton allies trying to corral them, reflect a much-changed political landscape since Clinton’s last run. Back then, super PACs didn’t exist. Potential candidates who needed campaign prep work done had to set up an exploratory committee or PAC under their own direct control.
Now super PACs are a must-have political accessory for candidates of all stripes.

The groups can raise and spend unlimited sums in support of a candidate and perform key tasks the person isn’t ready to do. In Clinton’s case, Priorities will probably line up pledges from big donors. Ready for Hillary is building email lists. And Correct the Record — launched last year by Clinton-critic-turned-defender David Brock as an offshoot of the super PAC American Bridge — hits back when Clinton is attacked in the media and tries to define potential rivals like Chris Christie.

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The outside backers have allowed Clinton to stay out of the political fray for a longer period of time as she makes up her mind about whether to run.

But the free-agent entities can also become headaches when they act at cross-purposes — or in ways a candidate doesn’t approve of.

A clash of super PACs

The call to Abedin, described by several people familiar with the conversation, touched off a larger debate in Clinton’s circle. Clinton herself was forced to grapple with the run-in between the two groups; several sources familiar with the discussions said she wanted to keep her team distant from the work of the super PACs to avoid brushing up against rules forbidding coordination. But Clinton made clear to aides that the mess, which in many ways echoed the factionalism of her past, needed to be sorted out.

In a series of meetings in Washington and New York, advisers to both groups huddled to address the problem. John Podesta, the former chief of staff to Bill Clinton who recently joined the Obama White House, was among the participants brought in on the Priorities side to help.
Some suggested trying to force Ready for Hillary to shut down. That idea was rejected out of concern it would prompt negative stories about Clinton forces stomping on the grass roots.

Another adviser proposed merging the two super PACs, but that also went nowhere.

Eventually they settled on a solution: Ready for Hillary would focus on collecting and analyzing voter data, accepting donations up to $25,000. Priorities would be the super PAC for mega-donors, working solely on paid advertising.

Ready for Hillary has since won over key people close to Clinton impressed by its efforts like cultivating detailed lists of supporters through social media, which Clinton didn’t do in 2008. Among other moves, it brought on Craig Smith, a White House political director for Bill Clinton and friend from his Arkansas days. He gave the aura of an adult in the room to a group created by younger former Clinton staffers.
Most important is that Moore, whose background is in field organizing, is said to believe in the work the group is doing, as does Baker of Dewey Square, according to several sources. Besides the email list, Ready for Hillary is building a massive, 50-state direct-mail and voter targeting program. In a sign of cooperation, the group rented Clinton’s supporter list from her old PAC. It also brought on Obama’s field gurus, Mitch Stewart and Jeremy Bird, to help build up its efforts, including by supporting local candidates who Clinton backs in this year’s midterm elections.

Ready for Hillary hopes to make its data available to a 2016 Clinton campaign, and some Clinton allies believe there are a number of young aides and operatives working for the super PAC who could become part of her campaign. The 2008 campaign had many well-documented flaws, but one was the failure to prominently deploy young campaign talent, which flocked to Obama.

“If you wonder whether Clintonworld has learned our lessons from 2008, look no further than the work of Ready for Hillary,” said one source supportive of its work.

It’s far from certain the outside group’s voter data would be welcomed by a Clinton campaign; it will likely prefer to compile its own. Or, some Clinton associates say, it could choose from any number of outside campaign data firms, including two launched by Obama 2012 veterans after his reelection.

Elsewhere in the constellation of outside groups doing work related to Clinton is EMILY’s List, led by operative Stephanie Schriock, who is frequently mentioned as a possible Clinton campaign manager. The group, which focuses on electing women and isn’t a super PAC, is conducting an expansive polling project about attitudes toward female candidates. Correct the Record, the Brock-sponsored rapid response project, is being managed by a Hillary Clinton favorite, Burns Strider, and has her allies’ nod of approval.

“This effort for Hillary, unprecedented in both its early timing and scope, is a demonstration of the extent to which the Democratic Party is unified behind this potential candidacy,” said one of the organizers.

From Obama ‘08 to Clinton ‘16

Two of the boldest-faced names to enter the Clinton constellation in 2013 tied their political fortunes to electing Obama in 2008: Jim Messina, who went on to become a top political hand in the White House and then run Obama’s reelection, and Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg.

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Despite his late arrival to Obama’s campaign in 2008 — he didn’t come on board until after the bloody primary — Messina was seen by Clinton aides as carrying a deep grudge from the campaign to the White House. Some Clinton associates suspected he was behind a failed attempt to scuttle two of her top staff picks at State: Capricia Marshall and Philippe Reines.

But what Messina lacks in longtime loyalty to Clinton, he makes up for in connections to Obama’s vast network of donors and activists. That had obvious value to a group like Priorities USA, which early last year was looking to morph from its 2012 version that decimated Mitt Romney with a series of attack ads into a pro-Clinton endeavor for 2016.
Early last year, Messina, who quietly admired Priorities’ work in 2012, started talking informally to the super PAC about a role. One draw is that working on a super PAC is less of a grind, and certainly more lucrative, than an actual campaign.

The discussions went on for months last year, long before news reports in November that he was in serious talks to become a co-chairman of the group. But some Clinton allies have grumbled that Messina’s swelling list of business clients could potentially embarrass Clinton; his backers dismiss the complaints as professional jealousy, saying plenty of Clinton advisers have their own potential business conflicts.

The White House has its own worries about Messina’s hoped-for move. One is that it would look like Obama was giving his blessing to the pro-Clinton group as his own vice president, Joe Biden, is weighing a 2016 run. Concern within the administration about ruffling relations with Biden has been serious enough to cause a lengthy delay in signing off on Messina officially joining Priorities, according to two people familiar with the deliberations.

Whatever role Messina may end up playing in 2016, the mere fact that most Clinton allies are fine with him being part of a pro-Clinton group signals a rapprochement that began when Obama tapped Clinton as his top diplomat. Messina had informal discussions with some of her aides after 2012 about his view of modern campaigns, and Bill Clinton has publicly admired his work since developing a connection with him last year.

Messina wasn’t the only one affiliated with Obama to join the future Clinton army via Priorities. Katzenberg broke with the Clintons in 2008 to back Obama and four years later helped launch Priorities with a $2 million check.

“I hope my donation will draw attention to the amount of money being raised by the extreme right wing and serve as a catalyst for other Democratic donors,” the DreamWorks Animation chief executive told CBS News in April 2012. The super PAC is now broadly seen as his baby.
After Obama secured four more years, the Democratic rainmaker made clear he was prepared to get behind Clinton financially. With Priorities reinventing itself and Messina getting involved with the group — Katzenberg and Messina worked together during the 2012 race — the media mogul has positioned himself as the group’s ambassador to Hollywood.

If all goes as planned, the hope is that Katzenberg and Messina’s involvement on behalf of Clinton will signal a smooth passage from Obama to Clinton within the party.

“It reflects the fact that the Obama political infrastructure is seamlessly transitioning to serve as [Clinton’s] political infrastructure,” said California-based political strategist Chris Lehane. “And [it] sends a signal to both Obama donors and operatives that it is all right to begin actively supporting the Clinton ’16 effort.”

The don’t-do-it camp

Despite the feverish buildup to a Clinton candidacy, some of her closest advisers aren’t sure she’ll run ­— and some don’t want her to.
Clinton has as clear a path to the nomination as anyone could. But she also bears the scars from her 2008 battle, as do a number of her aides who remember vividly the toll the enterprise took on Clinton and everyone involved. They all want to help her achieve whatever she decides she wants, but they are clear-eyed about another campaign.