Publicly, Clinton insists she’s many months away from a decision. | AP Photo
Early last summer in her Georgian-style home near Washington’s
Embassy Row, Hillary Clinton met with a handful of aides for a detailed
presentation on preparing for a 2016 presidential campaign.
Three
officials from the Democratic consulting firm Dewey Square Group —
veteran field organizer Michael Whouley, firm founder Charlie Baker and
strategist Jill Alper, whose expertise includes voter attitudes toward
women candidates — delivered a dispassionate, numbers-driven assessment.
They broke down filing deadlines in certain states, projected how much
money Clinton would need to raise and described how field operations
have become more sophisticated in the era of Barack Obama.
The meeting was organized by Minyon Moore, a longtime
Clinton intimate also at Dewey Square who has informally become the
potential candidate’s political eyes and ears of late. Clinton listened
closely but said little and made no commitments, according to people
familiar with the nearly hourlong gathering. It appears to have been the
only formal 2016-related presentation Clinton has been given from
anyone outside her immediate circle.
Publicly, Clinton insists she’s many months away from a decision
about her political future. But a shadow campaign on her behalf has
nevertheless been steadily building for the better part of a year — a
quiet, intensifying, improvisational effort to lay the groundwork for
another White House bid.
Some of the activity has the former first lady’s tacit approval. Some
involves outside groups that are operating independently, and at times
in competition with one another, to prepare a final career act for the
former senator and secretary of state, whose legacy as the most powerful
woman in the history of American politics is already secure.
More than two dozen people in her orbit interviewed for this article
described a virtual campaign in waiting — a term that itself makes some
of Clinton’s supporters bristle — consisting of longtime Clinton
loyalists as well as people who worked doggedly to elect her onetime
rival Obama.
There are two spheres of influence. One is made up of more than a
dozen Clinton staffers, loyalists and longtime friends whose advice she
values the most.
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The other sphere is more complex. It includes an assortment of super
PACs and outside groups, all jockeying to be part of the Clinton
movement but operating beyond her immediate direction and control.
Still, some of these efforts could become the foundation of an eventual
campaign.
For all the genuine excitement about the prospect that Clinton, 66,
could shatter the glass ceiling she famously invoked in 2008, the
potential for rancor among these groups is real.
In at least one instance last year, two super PACs collided over
efforts to get behind a Clinton candidacy — forcing her allies to
intervene.
“There’s upside and there’s risk” to this patchwork of outside
forces, said Tad Devine, an unaffiliated strategist who worked on John
Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign, when Democratic-leaning outside
groups often acted at odds with the candidate’s message.
“The upside is that people are out there doing valuable and important
work for you,” he said. But “in a campaign, when people are acting on
your behalf but they’re not driven by an agreed-upon strategy, then
that’s the risk.”
The outsiders: friends with headaches
Hillary Clinton was a few months removed from the State Department
when one of her top aides, Huma Abedin, received an alarmed phone call
about trouble brewing between two groups looking to help her
politically.
“Ready for Hillary,” the super PAC that was initially billed as a
grass-roots effort to channel early energy for Clinton to run, had
become a source of frustration, and it was reaching a boiling point. In
addition to a moniker that irked some Clinton allies — they thought it
had an air of inevitability that plagued her in the past — the group
was making an aggressive play for activists and donors to back their
effort.
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At the same time, Priorities USA, the main super PAC behind Obama in
2012, was in discussions to reinvent itself as a pro-Hillary Clinton
endeavor. That would mean appealing to some of those same supporters.
The two groups also had wildly different views of how active to be while
Clinton was assessing whether to run.
The Priorities official warned Abedin that the situation could become
problematic for Clinton if it wasn’t resolved. The official sought
guidance from someone who had the would-be candidate’s ear.
The efforts of pro-Clinton outside groups over the past half-year,
and the Clinton allies trying to corral them, reflect a much-changed
political landscape since Clinton’s last run. Back then, super PACs
didn’t exist. Potential candidates who needed campaign prep work done
had to set up an exploratory committee or PAC under their own direct
control.
Now super PACs are a must-have political accessory for candidates of all stripes.
The groups can raise and spend unlimited sums in support of a
candidate and perform key tasks the person isn’t ready to do. In
Clinton’s case, Priorities will probably line up pledges from big
donors. Ready for Hillary is building email lists. And Correct the
Record — launched last year by Clinton-critic-turned-defender David
Brock as an offshoot of the super PAC American Bridge — hits back when
Clinton is attacked in the media and tries to define potential rivals
like Chris Christie.
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The outside backers have allowed Clinton to stay out of the political
fray for a longer period of time as she makes up her mind about whether
to run.
But the free-agent entities can also become headaches when they act
at cross-purposes — or in ways a candidate doesn’t approve of.
A clash of super PACs
The call to Abedin, described by several people familiar with the
conversation, touched off a larger debate in Clinton’s circle. Clinton
herself was forced to grapple with the run-in between the two groups;
several sources familiar with the discussions said she wanted to keep
her team distant from the work of the super PACs to avoid brushing up
against rules forbidding coordination. But Clinton made clear to aides
that the mess, which in many ways echoed the factionalism of her past,
needed to be sorted out.
In a series of meetings in Washington and New York, advisers to both
groups huddled to address the problem. John Podesta, the former chief of
staff to Bill Clinton who recently joined the Obama White House, was
among the participants brought in on the Priorities side to help.
Some suggested trying to force Ready for Hillary to shut down. That
idea was rejected out of concern it would prompt negative stories about
Clinton forces stomping on the grass roots.
Another adviser proposed merging the two super PACs, but that also went nowhere.
Eventually they settled on a solution: Ready for Hillary would focus
on collecting and analyzing voter data, accepting donations up to
$25,000. Priorities would be the super PAC for mega-donors, working
solely on paid advertising.
Ready for Hillary has since won over key people close to Clinton
impressed by its efforts like cultivating detailed lists of supporters
through social media, which Clinton didn’t do in 2008. Among other
moves, it brought on Craig Smith, a White House political director for
Bill Clinton and friend from his Arkansas days. He gave the aura of an
adult in the room to a group created by younger former Clinton staffers.
Most important is that Moore, whose background is in field
organizing, is said to believe in the work the group is doing, as does
Baker of Dewey Square, according to several sources. Besides the email
list, Ready for Hillary is building a massive, 50-state direct-mail and
voter targeting program. In a sign of cooperation, the group rented
Clinton’s supporter list from her old PAC. It also brought on Obama’s
field gurus, Mitch Stewart and Jeremy Bird, to help build up its
efforts, including by supporting local candidates who Clinton backs in
this year’s midterm elections.
Ready for Hillary hopes to make its data available to a 2016 Clinton
campaign, and some Clinton allies believe there are a number of young
aides and operatives working for the super PAC who could become part of
her campaign. The 2008 campaign had many well-documented flaws, but one
was the failure to prominently deploy young campaign talent, which
flocked to Obama.
“If you wonder whether Clintonworld has learned our lessons from
2008, look no further than the work of Ready for Hillary,” said one
source supportive of its work.
It’s far from certain the outside group’s voter data would be
welcomed by a Clinton campaign; it will likely prefer to compile its
own. Or, some Clinton associates say, it could choose from any number of
outside campaign data firms, including two launched by Obama 2012
veterans after his reelection.
Elsewhere in the constellation of outside groups doing work related
to Clinton is EMILY’s List, led by operative Stephanie Schriock, who is
frequently mentioned as a possible Clinton campaign manager. The group,
which focuses on electing women and isn’t a super PAC, is conducting an
expansive polling project about attitudes toward female candidates.
Correct the Record, the Brock-sponsored rapid response project, is being
managed by a Hillary Clinton favorite, Burns Strider, and has her
allies’ nod of approval.
“This effort for Hillary, unprecedented in both its early timing and
scope, is a demonstration of the extent to which the Democratic Party is
unified behind this potential candidacy,” said one of the organizers.
From Obama ‘08 to Clinton ‘16
Two of the boldest-faced names to enter the Clinton constellation in
2013 tied their political fortunes to electing Obama in 2008: Jim
Messina, who went on to become a top political hand in the White House
and then run Obama’s reelection, and Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg.
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Despite his late arrival to Obama’s campaign in 2008 — he didn’t come
on board until after the bloody primary — Messina was seen by Clinton
aides as carrying a deep grudge from the campaign to the White House.
Some Clinton associates suspected he was behind a failed attempt to
scuttle two of her top staff picks at State: Capricia Marshall and
Philippe Reines.
But what Messina lacks in longtime loyalty to Clinton, he makes up
for in connections to Obama’s vast network of donors and activists. That
had obvious value to a group like Priorities USA, which early last year
was looking to morph from its 2012 version that decimated Mitt Romney
with a series of attack ads into a pro-Clinton endeavor for 2016.
Early last year, Messina, who quietly admired Priorities’ work in
2012, started talking informally to the super PAC about a role. One draw
is that working on a super PAC is less of a grind, and certainly more
lucrative, than an actual campaign.
The discussions went on for months last year, long before news
reports in November that he was in serious talks to become a co-chairman
of the group. But some Clinton allies have grumbled that Messina’s
swelling list of business clients could potentially embarrass Clinton;
his backers dismiss the complaints as professional jealousy, saying
plenty of Clinton advisers have their own potential business conflicts.
The White House has its own worries about Messina’s hoped-for move.
One is that it would look like Obama was giving his blessing to the
pro-Clinton group as his own vice president, Joe Biden, is weighing a
2016 run. Concern within the administration about ruffling relations
with Biden has been serious enough to cause a lengthy delay in signing
off on Messina officially joining Priorities, according to two people
familiar with the deliberations.
Whatever role Messina may end up playing in 2016, the mere fact that
most Clinton allies are fine with him being part of a pro-Clinton group
signals a rapprochement that began when Obama tapped Clinton as his top
diplomat. Messina had informal discussions with some of her aides after
2012 about his view of modern campaigns, and Bill Clinton has publicly
admired his work since developing a connection with him last year.
Messina wasn’t the only one affiliated with Obama to join the future
Clinton army via Priorities. Katzenberg broke with the Clintons in 2008
to back Obama and four years later helped launch Priorities with a $2
million check.
“I hope my donation will draw attention to the amount of money being
raised by the extreme right wing and serve as a catalyst for other
Democratic donors,” the DreamWorks Animation chief executive told CBS
News in April 2012. The super PAC is now broadly seen as his baby.
After Obama secured four more years, the Democratic rainmaker made
clear he was prepared to get behind Clinton financially. With Priorities
reinventing itself and Messina getting involved with the group —
Katzenberg and Messina worked together during the 2012 race — the media
mogul has positioned himself as the group’s ambassador to Hollywood.
If all goes as planned, the hope is that Katzenberg and Messina’s
involvement on behalf of Clinton will signal a smooth passage from Obama
to Clinton within the party.
“It reflects the fact that the Obama political infrastructure is
seamlessly transitioning to serve as [Clinton’s] political
infrastructure,” said California-based political strategist Chris
Lehane. “And [it] sends a signal to both Obama donors and operatives
that it is all right to begin actively supporting the Clinton ’16
effort.”
The don’t-do-it camp
Despite the feverish buildup to a Clinton candidacy, some of her
closest advisers aren’t sure she’ll run — and some don’t want her to.
Clinton has as clear a path to the nomination as anyone could. But
she also bears the scars from her 2008 battle, as do a number of her
aides who remember vividly the toll the enterprise took on Clinton and
everyone involved. They all want to help her achieve whatever she
decides she wants, but they are clear-eyed about another campaign.
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