A
few moderates and liberals have lately taken to arguing that, you know,
maybe a Romney presidency wouldn’t be too bad. He might turn out to be
more moderate, or at least pragmatic, than he’s acted in the campaign so
far. He might make a point of reaching out to Democrats in Congress.
Republicans might regain their trust of Keynesian economics and actually
do things to boost the economy out of naked political self-interest,
instead of sabotaging the economy out of same.
I am not really
convinced! Mitt Romney will be working with a Congress full of
Republicans and his Cabinet and administration will be full of
Republican political appointees, and that adds up to disaster,
especially with the current, insane Republican Party.
As it’s the
spooookiest time of the year, it seems appropriate to ask: What’s the
Romney presidency worst-case scenario? If Mitt Romney turns out to be
exactly the severe conservative he says he is, what can we expect?
War
Obviously we’re bombing Iran. They might be spinning some uranium around in a mountain, and we can’t let that continue.
As Wired recently reported,
bombing Iran isn’t actually as easy as it sounds. If we want to do it
right, it’ll take a massive strike against Iran’s ability to launch a
counterattack on Israel or Kuwait, followed by the much more massive
strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
And of course war with Iran leads to a worldwide oil shock, probably.
But
why stop with a preemptive airstrike? The actual worst-case scenario,
in terms of loss of life and possibly world-destroying consequences,
would be a nuclear strike on Iran. I’d hope that would be off the table
even in the event of “Defense Secretary John Bolton.” But you never
know, regime change might become popular again. A ground force in Iran
might suddenly become urgently necessary! The idiot Bush-era foreign
policy experts might suddenly decide that it wouldn’t be
that
hard to invade and occupy. The Iranian people would probably greet us as
liberators! That same weird bloodthirsty hysteria that gripped the
political elite in 2002-2003 might return, especially if Iran
successfully sinks an American ship or blows up a plane or a helicopter
during our totally righteous strike on their nuclear facilities — or,
god forbid, if there’s a terrorist attack in the U.S. that can be
credibly blamed on Hezbollah. Under the standard proposed for an
invasion by Gen. Shinseki prior to the Iraq war,
we’d need a good 1.4 million troops to properly invade Iran.
Of course, Romney’s Pentagon and White House will be stocked with
exactly the sort of people who ignored Gen. Shinseki prior to Iraq, so
it’d probably only be a couple hundred thousand. But basically mass,
widespread death and terror would result, just like Iraq only much, much
more so.
Remember: John Bolton isn’t just being kept around for
show. Romney actually listens to the guy. Romney’s selection of moderate
Robert Zoellick for his transition team led to so much howling from the
hawks that
his mouthpiece is basically promising Zoellick won’t have an important role in a Romney administration. But we can expect a big job
for Dan Senor,
the man who instantly went from unqualified idiot political hack
appointee to Respected Foreign Policy Expert the day Bush sent him to
lie on behalf of the disastrously incompetent provisional government in
post-invasion Iraq.
Let’s also not forget that former longtime CIA
spook Cofer Black — who was vice chairman of Blackwater for three years
— is Romney’s
“envoy to the dark side.” Black was at the CIA
while plans for extraordinary rendition were drawn up and the fact that he was at Blackwater at all should tell you what sort of principles the guy has.
The National Journal also says
Michael “Warrantless Surveillance” Hayden
could be the director of national intelligence or homeland security
secretary in a Romney administration, so we have that to look forward
to, too. (Also, Mitt
will bring back torture. He will bring it back so hard.)
Also,
from Jennifer Rubin:
“Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who caucuses with the Democrats, is
frequently mentioned for the secretary of state job.” Ah yes, a
wonderful option if you want some “bipartisan credibility” for your plan
to wage endless global war forever.
The Courts
Jonathan Bernstein sums it up:
If
Romney wins the presidency and holds it for eight years, he very likely
would replace not only moderate conservative Justice Anthony Kennedy
(born in 1936) with someone closer to Alito, but he also would probably
have the chance to replace either Ginsburg (born in 1933) or Stephen
Breyer (1938). On the other hand, if Obama wins, it’s possible that he
could wind up replacing at least one conservative justice, perhaps
Kennedy or Antonin Scalia (also 1936).
Scalia is
obviously not going to purposefully allow a Democrat to replace him, but
he’s quite old, and he may not have a choice. (Not that I’m wishing
Antonin Scalia anything but the best!) Ginsburg is even older, and it’s
extremely unlikely that she’d remain in place through two terms of Mitt
Romney.
Basically
one more conservative vote means the effective end of Roe v. Wade and the Commerce Clause. Replacing Breyer
and Ginsburg with conservatives would possibly mean the end of the entire New Deal regulatory state.
Three Romney appointees would mean conservative control of the Court for decades.
And
there is every reason to suspect that Romney will pick judges who’ll
vote like Scalia. That is the sort of person Republicans appoint now,
while Democrats appoint squishy mainstream moderate liberals that they
imagine everyone will be fine with. (And if Republicans control the
Senate during a Romney presidency, haha, sorry, we’re going back to
1896.)
That’s just the Supreme Court. Reagan’s lower court judges
profoundly changed American politics,
and they continue to do so today. George W. Bush appointed more circuit
and appeals court judges than Clinton, and so far Obama is on track to
have appointed the fewest since Ford. These judges have a tremendous
amount of power, and they will use it to strengthen the power of
corporations at the expense of individuals, the environment, and
communities every step of the way. (Plus, obviously, on criminal justice
they will be universally pro-prosecutor and basically ensure that our
horribly broken system keeps systematically locking up as many young
black men as possible.)
The Environment
It’s
not like President Obama will actually manage to avert catastrophic
climate change in his second term, considering the many barriers to the
sort of action required to actually help the problem, but it is safe to
say that Romney will do less.
The EPA’s
new fuel efficiency standards probably
wouldn’t end up surviving.
And the EPA certainly won’t be regulating greenhouse gas emissions
under the Clean Air Act in a Romney administration. And no more
investment in clean, renewable energy sources. And Keystone’s getting
built (probably either way, actually). Basically instead of
half-measures that won’t come close to addressing the problem, we will
get actively harmful policies, most likely.
The Federal Budget
If
you hate the deficit, you will … probably ignore those professed
beliefs as you defend a president who spends ever more on defense and
also slashes taxes, primarily on rich people. Just like the last
Republican president! And their Messiah, Ronald Reagan.
If you
hate government spending on social programs, you’ll find stuff to like:
Unlike Bush, with his squishy “compassionate conservative”
aisle-crossing education and healthcare initiatives, Romney will
cheerfully eliminate “Obamacare” and destroy Medicaid by handing it to
states that plan to spend as little money on it as possible.
And
of course there will be this fiscal cliff issue. The can will be kicked,
in the event of a Romney victory, to the next Congress, so that the
Romney administration can implement its grand deficit reduction plan.
It’s plausible that a Romney victory would lead to Senate Democrats
showing more spine on “entitlements” than they are willing to while a
Democrat is in the White House, but it’s also possible that they’ll be
desperate to appear bipartisan. So: Social Security retirement age
raised, most definitely, and lord only knows what happens to Medicare.
Eventually the new equivalent of the Ryan plan will pass. It will just be a matter of time.
The Economy
It will continue to suck! Horribly! For everyone!
In
conclusion: We’ll be at war and pretty soon there won’t be any more
Medicare or Social Security plus the rich will keep getting richer and
abortion will be illegal in most of the country. Happy Halloween!
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